Why is it important to stay homebound?

In France, we kiss, we share aperitifs and we chat endlessly over coffee. It's our way of looking at life. In society. And with the coronavirus crisis even more, we want to stick together. To come together so as not to give in to anxiety. But today is a serious time. "We are at war", declared our President of the Republic last night. And the authorities urge us, today more than ever, to stay with us.

Why ? First, because the researchers are unanimous on this subject: in the absence of real treatment, in the absence of vaccine, social distancing is to date the only effective means of curb this pandemic. Because, as rightly pointed out last Thursday, Jérôme Salomon, Director General of Health: " The coronavirus does not circulate in France. It is the men and women who transmit it. "

So, for the political and health authorities, the watchword is launched. And personalities are now echoing it on social media.

Because we can all transmit coronavirus

However, we do not all feel concerned. Because we are young. Because we are in good health. Because we do not present any symptom.

But you should know that beyond the fact that no one should feel invulnerable to this coronavirus, it has two characteristics that should not be overlooked.

First, it seems to make a certain number of paucisymptomatic victims (not very symptomatic). All these people with virus without presenting any real symptoms. Without even knowing it, therefore. So many people who remain contagious and likely to transmit the coronavirus. Especially to frail people for whom the risk of mortality is much higher. Staying at health home only if you experience symptoms is therefore not enough. You just have to stay at health home now.

Especially since this coronavirus is particularly contagious. Its reproduction rate, its R0, appears relatively high – it is somewhere between 2 and 3 – compared to that of the seasonal flue – which is around 1.5.

To avoid saturating the care services

As David Louapre explains, a physicist French, on his blog, " a epidemic, it's a chain reaction ". And since R0 depends not only on the characteristics of the virus, but also on our behavior, “Social distancing measures can have a completely disproportionate effect compared to the initial change we make. A toy model can easily show how by very simply dividing our contacts by two and dividing the probability of transmission of a virus of this type by two – by standing more than a meter from other people or by washing their hands very regularly – you can go from two million dead to just 180! " Speaking of a toy model and certainly not of any prediction, again.

Thus, if no measure of social distancing is taken, we risk the runaway. The runaway of cases and in fact, the runaway of serious cases. It is therefore the saturation of healthcare services that the authorities fear most. Saturation which could lead to a very high excess mortality.

Sunday evening on the set of TF1, Olivier Véran, Minister of Health, said it already: "It is not an act of resistance than going out when you are told not to go out. It is an act of inconsistency or recklessness. And carelessness today can kill. "

So, in the coming days … Stay at health home!